New forecasts suggest the mobile gaming market will shrink 6.4% year-on-year

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A new report by Newzoo suggests that the mobile games market will generate $92.2 billion in 2022. This represents a 6.4 percent decline year-on-year, and an 11 percent decline from the previously forecast $103.5 billion.

Newzoo attributes the decline partly to the removal of IDFA and the global economic downturn. Although these were forecast to negatively impact the market, the first quarter of 2022 proved relatively strong, leading to optimism about its future. However, the market dipped considerably in Q2, and signs indicate that it didn’t recover in the year’s third quarter.

Despite this downturn, mobile gaming is still forecast to remain the largest sector of the games industry – at $92.2 billion, the predicted figure is around 50 percent of the total projected revenue of $184.4 billion for the gaming market in 2022.

Is the bubble bursting?

Newzoo notes that the low entry barrier for mobile gaming also implies a lower barrier to exit. The mobile market saw an unprecedented boom during the pandemic, and as other forms of entertainment are becoming available again, players have more options for how to spend their time and money. Coupled with this, the current economic climate is limiting disposable income just as the market is normalising.

Whilst mobile gaming remains the most profitable area of the gaming industry, part of this is due to the fact that it attracts a wider audience. In contrast, the steeper entry requirements of console and PC games could indicate more passion for gaming, and consumers who own those platforms may be more reluctant to reduce their engagement.

While this figure may seem disheartening, the gaming market still generated almost $43 billion more in 2020-2022 than was originally forecast prior to the pandemic.

In September, Newzoo found that 50 percent of Gen Z and Gen Alpha make in-game purchases.

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